Pollster Rich Baris: Numbers Show ‘Only Trump Can Beat Biden’ In 2024

Baris argues that “only Trump can beat Biden” but Republican Party’s leaders are too “cowardly”, “corrupt”, and “stupid” to recognize it.

Top pollster Richard Baris said the Republican Party’s continuing primary battle risks fracturing the party and sabotaging chances to win in 2024. His message was clear: “Only Trump can beat Biden” but Republican Party’s leaders are too “cowardly”, “corrupt”, and “stupid” to recognize it.

Appearing on Bannon’s War Room on Tuesday, Baris warned that over a third of President Trump’s supporters would not vote for any other potential nominee in the 2024 general election. Considering that nearly every national poll shows the former president leading all other candidates by between 25 and 50 points, this scenario would represent an unprecedented landslide disaster for conservatives nationwide.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, he said, has also been losing support in recent weeks and has no hope of catching up. As of August 29th, his polling shows President Trump leading DeSantis
56.8% to 18.1% in Florida, a result he called “career-ending” for a sitting governor.

To determine whether a “Trump or Bust” vote truly exists – and whether there is a similar effect for any other candidate – Baris recently added a question to his polls about whether respondents would vote for the party’s nominee or cast a write-in vote for their own candidate. The results were dramatically in President Trump’s favor, especially with minority and working-class voters.

“Routinely, no matter what state, no matter nationally, almost 30% of Trump’s voters say they will write his name on the ballot if he is not the nominee. And another five percent say they won’t vote,” Baris said. “What does that mean? It means Trump is ahead of Biden in Florida by almost ten points and DeSantis is basically tied… Because any Republican needs that base.”

The final results of his polling were brutal for DeSantis. In addition to the former president leading the incumbent governor by nearly 39 points in the primary, “only 49% of Trump voters can be counted on to vote for the nominee in the fall.” 40% of Floridian likely voters who support President Trump as their first choice say they would write his name in and another 2.4% say they would not vote at all.

This effect did not exist for any other candidate. Of the 17.7% of DeSantis voters who initially claimed that they would cast a write-in vote for him, three quarters of them effectively admitted they were bluffing by answering in a later question that they’d vote for Trump against President Joe Biden in the general election. The final results of the general election poll showed Trump beating Biden in Florida by 45% to 36.9% whereas DeSantis remained in a statistical dead heat at 37.5% to 37.8%.

Baris was emphatic that these results present Republicans with a clear choice to either rally behind President Trump or watch the conservative movement go down in flames.

He specifically cautioned against attempts by NeverTrumper Republicans to remove President Trump from the ballot, as was recently considered in New Hampshire by Secretary of State Dave Scanlan at the behest of former Senate candidate Corky Messner, who President Trump had endorsed in 2020. In a statement released on the New Hampshire Department of Justice Website Scanlan and N.H. Attorney General John M. Formella sought to dismiss panic by Granite State conservatives that they are planning to disenfranchise Trump voters – something NBC News described as a “conspiracy theory” – but admitted that they are still “carefully reviewing the legal issues involved”:

Those idiots in New Hampshire think they’ll survive this! Think that they could remove Trump from the ballot and get away with it. And that it won’t do anything. Voters are going to be blackmailed, and I’ve heard this out of the mouth of DeSantis’ donors. That’s how I was not surprised when the New York Times leak happened. I knew what the strategy was… they believe that they can blackmail or extort… voters and that they’re going to get away with it…

You know, “If you don’t vote for us, then you’re handing the country to Joe Biden and the Democrats. And Donald Trump will spend the rest of his days in jail. Is that what you want? You have no choice but to vote for him.” Obviously, it’s not that they don’t care, but I’m telling you enough of these voters will not be blackmailed.

We are hearing it from all walks of life: “I can’t believe they’re doing this!” Everyone knows – especially minorities – what they’re seeing, in these communities. And they don’t like it. And they feel that maybe they can’t give the system an FU, but he can. And if they support him, together they’ll give the system an FU…

He’s still getting 89-90% of the Republican vote. Joe Biden is getting like 80-85% of the Democratic vote. So let’s just call it 10% that absolutely hate America First holding hostage the rest of the party.

Baris was widely recognized on the Right as the “most accurate pollster of 2016” and his Big Data Poll has consistently outperformed mainstream polls ever since. Even though he incorrectly predicted a Trump win in 2020, his polling in that year was actually much closer to real results than his mainstream competitors. His fairly unique spin on the polling business is to use different polling methods to reach different demographics and weighting samples for region/education rather than party identification, positions that put him at odds with the polling mainstream.

Original Article: https://valiantnews.com/2023/08/rich-baris-polling-shows-only-trump-can-beat-biden-in-2024/